⚽ Betting Punter

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Tickets for 2026-08-09

Value picks (sweet spot)

VALUE · sweet spot (confident + value) 4.11x ZQQGQH loss

⚠ value sweet spot — 6 picks both confident (>=55%) and +EV, ranked by Kelly; stake small (~¼-Kelly per leg)

Joint probability 0.262619 — ₦100 returns ₦411

Kickoff (UTC)MatchLeagueMarketPick OddsProbResult
14:00 FK Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Rodina Moscow Russia Premier League OU (total=1.5) over 1.14 91% ✓ win FT 1-2
14:30 Halmstads BK vs GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan OU (total=4.5) under 1.14 88% ✓ win FT 0-2
16:30 Deportes Concepcion vs Universidad de Concepcion Chile Primera Division DNB home 1.41 72% ✓ win FT 1-0
18:15 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa DNB home 1.67 62% ✗ loss FT 0-2
19:00 SE Palmeiras SP vs SC Internacional RS Brazil Brasileiro Serie A DNB home 1.20 83% void FT 0-0
20:30 Gimnasia Y Tiro de Salta vs Nueva Chicago Argentina Primera Nacional OU (total=3.5) under 1.12 90% ✓ win FT 2-0

Jackpot

JACKPOT · fewer games 15.17x SG3NZL loss

⚠ fewest-games jackpot: biggest payout within 6 games at 15x

Joint probability 0.076273 — ₦100 returns ₦1,517

Kickoff (UTC)MatchLeagueMarketPick OddsProbResult
14:00 FK Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Rodina Moscow Russia Premier League AH (hcp=-2.5) home 2.15 53% ✗ loss FT 1-2
14:30 Halmstads BK vs GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan OU (total=4.5) under 1.14 88% ✓ win FT 0-2
16:30 Deportes Concepcion vs Universidad de Concepcion Chile Primera Division 1X2 home 1.96 51% ✓ win FT 1-0
18:15 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa 1X2 home 2.35 43% ✗ loss FT 0-2
19:00 SE Palmeiras SP vs SC Internacional RS Brazil Brasileiro Serie A DNB home 1.20 83% void FT 0-0
20:30 Gimnasia Y Tiro de Salta vs Nueva Chicago Argentina Primera Nacional OU (total=3.5) under 1.12 90% ✓ win FT 2-0
Honesty check: at joint probability 0.07627282, this ticket lands roughly once every 13 days of daily play. This is the fewer-games jackpot — same target in fewer, higher-odds games than the standard jackpot (fewer legs, but lower win chance per the odds). The SAFE and MEDIUM tiers are where the model's edge actually compounds.

Betbuilder & same-game

Same-game slip 1 3.92x G8J8LQ loss

⚠ same-game slip: 2 correlated legs on one match, 3.9x, calibrated p=34.3%

Joint probability 0.342747 — ₦100 returns ₦392

Kickoff (UTC)MatchLeagueMarketPick OddsProbResult
18:15 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa 1X2 home 2.35 43% ✗ loss FT 0-2
18:15 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa DNB home 1.67 62% ✗ loss FT 0-2

BETBUILDER jackpot 11.06x ZYNZ0T loss

⚠ betbuilder: biggest correlated slip available — 5 legs across 2 matches at 11x (150,000x target not reached)

Joint probability 0.151735 — ₦100 returns ₦1,106

Kickoff (UTC)MatchLeagueMarketPick OddsProbResult
14:00 FK Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Rodina Moscow Russia Premier League AH (hcp=-2.5) home 2.15 53% ✗ loss FT 1-2
14:00 FK Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Rodina Moscow Russia Premier League 1X2 home 1.15 88% ✗ loss FT 1-2
14:00 FK Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Rodina Moscow Russia Premier League OU (total=1.5) over 1.14 91% ✓ win FT 1-2
18:15 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa 1X2 home 2.35 43% ✗ loss FT 0-2
18:15 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa DNB home 1.67 62% ✗ loss FT 0-2
Honesty check: at joint probability 0.15173541, this ticket lands roughly once every 7 days of daily play. This is the cross-game betbuilder — correlated same-game goal combos priced from the model, multiplied across matches toward the 150k target. The SAFE and MEDIUM tiers are where the model's edge actually compounds.

Weekly slips

WEEKLY · edge stack (top +EV legs) 5.19x UAGD0K loss

⚠ kelly jackpot: biggest +EV stack available — 3 legs at 5x (150,000x not reached)

Joint probability 0.204410 — ₦100 returns ₦519

Kickoff (UTC)MatchLeagueMarketPick OddsProbResult
11:35 Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Peng City China Chinese Super League 1X2 home 1.37 73% ✓ win FT 4-0
14:00 FK Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Rodina Moscow Russia Premier League BTTS no 1.59 66% ✗ loss FT 1-2
18:15 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa 1X2 home 2.35 43% ✗ loss FT 0-2

Correct-score experiment

EXPERIMENT · correct score, modal (most likely scoreline) 4200.90x S7GWCR loss

⚠ experiment · modal arm — the most likely scoreline in each of the week's biggest modeled games (max hit rate at the offered price); head-to-head vs CS_EXP_VALUE on the same games

Joint probability 0.000079 — ₦100 returns ₦420,090

Kickoff (UTC)MatchLeagueMarketPick OddsProbResult
17:00 Djurgardens IF vs Vasteraas SK Sweden Allsvenskan CS 1-1 9.50 8% ✗ loss FT 6-0
17:00 Halmstads BK vs IK Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan CS 0-2 8.25 9% ✓ win FT 0-2
17:00 Odense Boldklub vs SonderjyskE Denmark Superliga CS 1-1 6.70 11% ✗ loss FT 1-0
18:30 Fotbal Club FCSB vs FC Farul Constanta Romania Superliga CS 1-0 8.00 10% ✗ loss FT 2-2

EXPERIMENT · correct score, value (best price vs model) 17813.25x UCXLMX loss

⚠ experiment · value arm — the most underpriced scoreline on the same games as CS_EXP_MODAL (max EV, lower hit rate)

Joint probability 0.000021 — ₦100 returns ₦1,781,325

Kickoff (UTC)MatchLeagueMarketPick OddsProbResult
17:00 Djurgardens IF vs Vasteraas SK Sweden Allsvenskan CS 1-0 10.50 8% ✗ loss FT 6-0
17:00 Halmstads BK vs IK Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan CS 1-1 10.00 8% ✗ loss FT 0-2
17:00 Odense Boldklub vs SonderjyskE Denmark Superliga CS 0-2 19.50 4% ✗ loss FT 1-0
18:30 Fotbal Club FCSB vs FC Farul Constanta Romania Superliga CS 2-0 8.70 9% ✗ loss FT 2-2