Weekly slips — 20 Jul to 26 Jul 2026
EXPERIMENT · correct score, modal (most likely scoreline) 2608.98x RF2X1P loss
⚠ experiment · modal arm — the most likely scoreline in each of the week's biggest modeled games (max hit rate at the offered price); head-to-head vs CS_EXP_VALUE on the same games
Joint probability 0.000131 — ₦100 returns ₦260,898
| Kickoff (UTC) | Match | League | Market | Pick | Odds | Prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Botafogo FR RJ vs Santos FC SP | Brazil Brasileiro Serie A | CS | 2-0 | 10.00 | 8% | ✗ loss FT 2-1 |
| 18:00 | EC Vitoria BA vs CR Vasco da Gama RJ | Brazil Brasileiro Serie A | CS | 1-1 | 5.90 | 12% | ✗ loss FT 1-0 |
| 18:00 | Fluminense FC RJ vs Red Bull Bragantino SP | Brazil Brasileiro Serie A | CS | 1-0 | 6.70 | 12% | ✗ loss FT 1-1 |
| 18:00 | Mirassol FC SP vs Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS | Brazil Brasileiro Serie A | CS | 1-0 | 6.60 | 11% | ✗ loss FT 2-1 |
EXPERIMENT · correct score, value (best price vs model) 24887.15x R2UT0T loss
⚠ experiment · value arm — the most underpriced scoreline on the same games as CS_EXP_MODAL (max EV, lower hit rate)
Joint probability 0.000018 — ₦100 returns ₦2,488,715
| Kickoff (UTC) | Match | League | Market | Pick | Odds | Prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Botafogo FR RJ vs Santos FC SP | Brazil Brasileiro Serie A | CS | 3-0 | 19.00 | 5% | ✗ loss FT 2-1 |
| 18:00 | EC Vitoria BA vs CR Vasco da Gama RJ | Brazil Brasileiro Serie A | CS | 2-0 | 11.50 | 7% | ✗ loss FT 1-0 |
| 18:00 | Fluminense FC RJ vs Red Bull Bragantino SP | Brazil Brasileiro Serie A | CS | 1-0 | 6.70 | 12% | ✗ loss FT 1-1 |
| 18:00 | Mirassol FC SP vs Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS | Brazil Brasileiro Serie A | CS | 3-0 | 17.00 | 5% | ✗ loss FT 2-1 |